Reading Notes: 'Corona Shock Survival: Japan Economic Recovery Plan' by Kazuhiko Toyama

Tadashi Shigeoka ·  Thu, July 23, 2020

I read 『コロナショック・サバイバル 日本経済復興計画』冨山 和彦(著) (Corona Shock Survival: Japan Economic Recovery Plan by Kazuhiko Toyama), so I’ll share the insights I gained from the book.

コロナショック・サバイバル

Background for Reading 'Corona Shock Survival'

I felt a mysterious sense of obligation that “Corona Shock Survival - I must read this book at this timing,” so I read it.

Below are quotes from memorable passages and my notes.

Chapter 1: L→G→F - The Economy Becomes Critical in Three Stages

リモートワークやネット宅配の市場が伸びているから何とかなる、みたいなことを言っているお気楽な連中がいるが、リアルなローカルサービス産業が吸収している雇用はまさに膨大で、おそらく二桁ぐらい違うオーダーの世界を比較して代替を期待する議論はナンセンスである。

(There are optimistic people saying things like “remote work and online delivery markets are growing so we’ll manage somehow,” but the employment absorbed by real local service industries is truly enormous, and it’s nonsense to compare worlds that are probably different by about two orders of magnitude and expect substitution.)

? I want to refrain from making optimistic statements about “remote work and online.”

Chapter 2: The Key to Survival for Companies, Individuals, and Government

危機に遭遇したリーダーは、今、目の前にある危機を生き残ることと同時に、パラダイム転換後の新しい通常、すなわちニューノーマルを展望、想像、妄想さえもして色々な準備を仕込んでおくことも求められている。

(Leaders who encounter crises are required not only to survive the current crisis before them, but also to envision, imagine, and even fantasize about the new normal after the paradigm shift and prepare various things in advance.)

? Leaders in crisis envision the new normal and prepare in advance.

過去の経済危機の歴史において、同じ業種でも企業の生死を分けたのは、要するに危機到来時における、手元流動性(現預金)の潤沢さ、金融機関との従来からの信頼関係、そして平時における稼ぐ力(特に営業キャッシュフローの厚み)と自己資本の厚み、以上である。

(In the history of past economic crises, what separated the life and death of companies even in the same industry was essentially: the abundance of liquid assets (cash and deposits) when the crisis arrived, traditional trust relationships with financial institutions, and the earning power during peacetime (especially the thickness of operating cash flow) and the thickness of equity capital.)

? Economic crises are overcome with cash.

経営危機に際して、企業に致命傷を与えかねない重大な Bad News こそが重要な The News なのである。これを抜きに意思決定をすることは致命的な間違いを起こす可能性が高い。また、そういう隠しごとは所詮じわじわと滲み出るもので、そこから生じる噂が企業の信用をさらに毀損していく。

(In management crises, serious bad news that could deal a fatal blow to a company is the important news. Making decisions without this is likely to cause fatal mistakes. Moreover, such cover-ups will eventually seep out gradually, and the rumors arising from them will further damage the company’s credibility.)

? Bad News is The News. Don’t cover it up.

修羅場の経営の心得(3)ー 現金残高

短期的なPL目標は本気で捨てろ。日繰りのキャッシュ管理がすべてだ。

(Crisis Management Principles (3) - Cash Balance

Seriously abandon short-term P&L targets. Daily cash management is everything.)

古来より戦時は独裁である。意思決定に関与させるべきは、少数の真のプロフェッショナル、修羅場のリアリズムを経験し、必要な専門的知見を持って、限られた情報で最良の判断を下しうるプロだけである。経営で言えば、財務、事業、会計、法務、労務に関するリアルな修羅場経験とスキルである。

(Since ancient times, wartime has been dictatorship. Only a small number of true professionals who have experienced the realism of crises, possess necessary specialized knowledge, and can make the best judgments with limited information should be involved in decision-making. In management terms, this means real crisis experience and skills in finance, business, accounting, legal affairs, and labor affairs.)

? Since ancient times, wartime has been dictatorship. Get through crises with a small elite team.

Chapter 4: Looking Ahead to Post-Corona Shock

知識集約産業においては知識集積度を高めるほうが有利で、そのために都市への人工集中が進むという傾向があるのも確かだが、その一方で過剰集積によってトータルな社会システムが持続可能性を失ってしまうと元も子もない。

(In knowledge-intensive industries, it’s advantageous to increase knowledge concentration, and there’s certainly a tendency for artificial concentration in cities for that purpose, but on the other hand, if excessive concentration causes the total social system to lose sustainability, it defeats the purpose.)

? I think remote organizations in knowledge-intensive industries are one approach to solving the problem of excessive concentration in large cities.

裏返して言えば、CXごっこの典型であるDX(デジタルトランスフォーメーション)ごっこはこの時期、「不要不急の出費や投資はストップ」ということで、そのほとんどが淘汰されるはずだ。不要不急、すなわち「ごっこ」だったということである。

(Conversely, DX (Digital Transformation) pretense, which is typical of CX pretense, should mostly be eliminated during this period with “stopping non-essential, non-urgent expenses and investments.” Non-essential and non-urgent, meaning it was just “pretense.”)

? What gets stopped as non-essential and non-urgent is CX and DX pretense.

That’s all from the Gemba, where I want to run a company without falling into CX and DX pretense.